Here’s a story that came out more than two weeks ago but has received little attention. The data underlying the global warming hypothesis turns out to have been cooked. Richard Fernandez explains:
The most amazing part of this story from my point of view was the way in which a dogged Canadian mathematician, acting practically alone with the help of his trusty readers, forced the establishment back step by step to explain where the conclusions upon which a trillion dollar public policy came from and insisted on reproducing the results. If ever there was a tale of triumph over dauntless odds — almost to the point of comparing it to breaking the bank — this is it.
Steve McIntyre is the Canadian mathematician who spent years in quest of the data underlying the famous “hockey stick” graph. Finally, after the Royal Society joined him in the quest, he got access to the data. It turns out the global warming graph that led to Al Gore’s Nobel Prize, the cap-and-trade bill, and widespread hysteria is based on analysis of the rings of twelve trees. Twelve! Wait—it gets worse. Those twelve were cherry-picked from a group of 252 to yield the conclusion that the past century has been the warmest on record. Analyzing the full set of data doesn’t yield that conclusion at all.
From this we know that the Yamal data set uses just 12 trees from a larger set to produce its dramatic recent trend. Yet many more were cored, and a larger data set (of 34) from the vicinity shows no dramatic recent warming, and warmer temperatures in the middle ages.
In all there are 252 cores in the CRU Yamal data set, of which ten were alive 1990. All 12 cores selected show strong growth since the mid-19th century. The implication is clear: the dozen were cherry-picked.
Bishop Hill has the full narrative. You have to read it to believe it. Historians of science are going to have a field day, maybe sooner than later, since this year’s unseasonably chilly temperatures are puncturing the global warming myth day by day. (See, for example, John Hinderaker: “It is quite remarkable that liberals continue to sell their global warming/government takeover program, when any damn fool can see that the globe isn’t warming.”)